...please let us know.

From TPM:

Hmm, a new twist to robo-slime-gate. John McCain appears to be pumping one of the nastier species of his robo-slime into a state where he has no chance whatsoever of winning.

A reader just outside of Seattle, in Washington State, reports to us that she got this McCain robo-call that was running yesterday in Arizona -- it paints Obama as unprepared to handle terror and singles out Joe Biden's recent claim that Obama was likely to be tested by an international crisis early in his first term.

The reader, Anne Francis, who is general manager for a company that books Broadway shows in venues across the country, played us the call, which came into her home phone.

We'd love to hear about it.

Obama Leads in All Tracking Polls
James Staples

Most of the info in this bulletin is derived from a site called FiveThirtyEight.com, so called because there are 538 votes in the Electoral College. This is a very awesome tracking poll site. It includes a huge number of polls, pretty much every poll out there. It breaks down statistical data every way it can be broken down, and it explains how each poll is weighted (or not). It shows probability graphs for which candidate is predicted to win the popular vote, the electoral vote and it includes large quantities of data about senate seats.

The data that really caught my eye were these:

---

The probability of Obama winning the election if he loses Ohio is 78.91%

The probability of Obama winning the election if he loses Ohio & Florida is 70.63%

The probability of Obama winning the election if he loses Ohio, Florida & Pennsylvania is 2.74%

---

The probability of McCain winning the election if he loses Ohio is 0.06%

The probability of McCain winning the election if he loses Ohio & Florida is 0.00%

The probability of McCain winning the election if he loses Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania is 0.00%

---

The result of averaging two or three dozen national and state polls shows the projected winners of these three states as follows:

Florida: Obama wins by 2.5%
Ohio: Obama wins by 3.4%
Pennsylvania: Obama wins by 9.0%

In summary, if Obama wins any of these three states, it is extremely likely that he will win the election. Even if McCain wins all three of these states, he is still less likely to win than Obama.

---

There are 11 national polls listed. They are: ABC/Post, ARG, Battleground, Diageo/Hotline, Gallup, IBD/TIPP, Ipsos, Pew, Rasmussen, Research 2000 and Zogby.

Well, we just received our ballots in the mail, so it's time to start putting pen to paper and bring this long, long election cycle to a close. I just wanted to share some of my thoughts, and begin a thread that folks can use to discuss specific candidates and initiatives.

First up, the biggie: President. Anyone who's been reading OlyBlog for a while knows that I favor Obama. I think he's got the skills we need at this time, both in terms of academic credentials to understand the issues we face, and the ability to communicate with constituencies, other politicians, and world leaders. He's cool when it's important to be cool, he's flexible when it's important to be flexible, and he's strong when it's important to be strong. I vote for him not as the lesser of two evils, but with some modicum of expectation that he will make significant changes in how things run at the federal level. I think it's going to get interesting in Washington, D.C., if you're part of the status quo, and I'm looking forward to reading about the discomfiture of many lobbyists, hacks, and pundits in the near future.

Just as strongly, I am convinced that McCain is completely wrong for the job. He has not articulated, to my satisfaction, one coherent idea about how to deal with either the economy or foreign policy. Frankly, he's all over the map, doesn't do the background work necessary for the job, and appears to hate (viscerally) those who have the temerity to disagree with him. I cannot imagine how he could possibly develop and maintain the kind of delicate personal relationships that are required with partners, both internal and external. Finally, his philosophical position -- never met a deregulation bill he didn't love -- is the exact opposite of what we need now. We need someone who understands how governments can set the rules for markets so that the energy of capitalism is harnessed, without the excesses and inefficiencies.

Next up: Governor. This is a no-brainer. Say what you like about her, but Gregoire is an effective politician who knows how to run government and get things done. Her priorities have largely focused on education, social services, and attracting business to this state. Some are angry that she hasn't been more forceful about transportation. I think she can do that job in her second term, and perhaps it's better as a second-term project. In order to get movement, she's going to have to bang some heads, something that is easier as a second-term Governor (with more of a mandate than she started with in her first term). On the other hand, Rossi isn't skilled at anything except selling his thin resume. Again, I really can't imagine him doing anything positive for this state. He doesn't strike me as a public servant -- too much entitlement in is attitude, and not enough humility.

The other one that I'll mention now is Initiative Measure No. 1000. As someone who's lost both parents to lung cancer, I have to say that this it is very important to pass this initiative. It is hard to imagine, unless you've witnessed it up close, the degree of helplessness people feel in the grip of a serious (and potentially terminal) disease. This initiative will give them some small sense of control that I feel with empower them as health care consumers in lots of ways, even those not concerned with end-of-life decisions. It will also make explicit the question of how end of life should occur, instead of leaving it to the doctors, or ignoring it altogether. I'm for this initiative with no reservations.

OK. Your turn. Who (or what) are you for and why?

First it started with the slimy viral emails claiming that Obama was some sort of crypto-muslim, followed with the caustic rhetoric that "he doesn't look like a President." Now the VP candidate herself is making the absurd claim that he "palls around with terrorists." Well, here's the result:

This is the most irresponsible kind of campaigning that I have ever witnessed. What other evidence does one need that McCain/Palin value winning over the health and unity of our country?