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Submitted by Mike on Mon, 06/09/2008 - 6:16am.

Olympia City Manager Steve Hall and Public Works Director Mike Mucha were interviewed by Christopher Swope for an article title "A Rising Tide" that was published in the US GSA magazine Governing.com. You can read the article here. This article is from December 2007 so it is pretty current.

Here are some things to consider from that interview:

Steve Hall says the Olympia community is "pretty engaged around the whole climate change issue" and Hall says that Olympia has met the Kyoto protocol standards.

It's an interesting read and focuses on the impact of rising sea level which makes sense because Olympia is a coastal community, even if the coast is the intercoastal Puget Sound. The City's planning is set around sea level rise of one foot, two feet and three feet.

Public Works Director Mike Mucha notes that planning for sea level rise in Puget Sound is not simply looking at global sea level rise, the planning has to take into account tides that can cause regular 20 foot sea level fluctuations with the tides. Mucha also notes that the rising sea level is magnified in Olympia because we are at the end of Puget Sound.

The problem is that as sea level rises, it's not going to be felt as a gently lapping body of water that creeps slowly higher, it's going to be increased flooding that occurs during specific events when high winds, heavy rains and high tides coincide and that when these three coincide we will experience increased flooding.

Mucha is an engineer and demonstrates a sophisticated view of sea level rise in the article, mentioning that sea level rise is not simply the result of glacial and icecap melt, it is also an effect of thermal expansion of the oceans as sea water temperature rises. Mucha says the West Coast also faces an increased challenge of changing wind patters with prevailing winds pushing more water against our coast. Mucha also notes that the South Sound is sinking about a tenth of a foot in the next 50 to 100 year and says "So we have land going down, we have the water getting bigger, we have snow melt, and we have winds pushing the water around the globe in different ways. So it's a very complicated thing. And so when people ask how much are seas going to rise and I say three feet, it's based on a lot of assumptions and a lot of dynamics. Does anyone know? No. These are best guesses at this point."

Here is a quote from Steve Hall from that article "It's interesting, because when talk about sea-level rise, we get two reactions from the policy level. One is that we can't understand it--we can't know exactly how much it's going to rise, so we can't react to it. It's just too overwhelming, there's just too many factors of wind and subsidence of land and global warming, and maybe Greenland will melt and what do we do? So we do nothing."

But to their credit, they are not doing nothing. And by the way, the Greenland melt is a rich area of scientific study these days as the melt has proceeded faster than models have predicted leading to establishment of new ideas about Greenland ice melt known as the Zwally effect and the Jacobshavn effect.

Hall says, so what do we do? We take a reasonable approach and pick some number and start planning. "We said, let's talk about two to three feet of sea-level rise over the next 50 to 100 years. What does that mean for our community? What does it mean for our utility infrastructure downtown? What does it mean for our roadway systems? And what does it mean for investment in our public and private facilities?"

There is more and I hope to find time to post more thoughts about this article and especially how this planning that Hall talks about intersects with development of the isthmus and Olympia 2012's (myopic?) vision, but my time is short, so here, some more graphics from the article:

Rising Sea Levels in Olympia
As sea levels rise, much of Olympia will find itself submerged. These images show the projected impact of sea level increases of, from left to right, one foot, two feet and three feet.

 

»

a moment to be proud of our city employees

"Hall: By the way, Michael [Mucha] rides his bike every day."

nice.

I was biking around the FLOD yesterday and coming back across the south end, I found myself thinking that for me, some big buildings on the isthmus wouldn't be that big a deal, visually. (Maybe even better than the cranes?)

but...the practicality of having new buildings on a piece of land that's likely to be flooded? that I'm not so impressed with, unless there's some flooding mitigation aspect of the project that I'm not aware of.

it looks more & more like we find ourselves in a New Orleans-like or Venice-like situation. at least we don't have hurricanes!

»

Nature

 Taking things back.  I like it.  No matter what, the ocean always wins. 

"Ted Kennedy's car has killed more people than my gun."
»

Bathtub Effect

"Mucha also notes that the rising sea level is magnified in Olympia because we are at the end of Puget Sound."

As the tide comes into the shallower areas of the Sound the water piles up, as if it were sloshing into the end of a bathtub. But a lot - a one foot rise in tidal levels at the mouth of the Sound means about a three foot rise in levels in Olympia.

There's some more stuff about this on the Friends of the Waterfront website, including links to the PDFs of the City's recent two part report on this issue, a recent Olympian article, and this graph by Doug Canning of the UW's Climate Impacts Group showing this bathtub effect.

(Relatively less important, but some studies suggest downtown's sinking up to a foot a century, not a tenth of a foot or two-tenths. The City just put some money into a GPS facility to try to measure this better.)

Karen Messmer, who's on the City Council, was quoted in this Olympian article as saying "'we all' expect 'eventually there may be a need for a seawall.'" Or dikes, since we don't have to deal with open ocean waves...

Unless there's a tsunami in the Sound, anyway. (There's some collaborative research involving NOAA which attempts to model such events. They think the last one was roughly a thousand years ago, though, so don't start running for high ground right away).

»

Even with the moderate projection shown on the maps

it's pretty clear the isthmas looks like a silly idea. Then again, it leaves the nothern half of downtown looking a little vulnerable. Another reason to close the port (and build the first minor league baseball stadium on stilts where the Olympia Gondoliers or Squids will play). Thanks for bringing the article to our attention.

I'm interested in what the maps represent. Is is average water level? Or is it the expected water level at peak tides and other high risk conditions? I suspect the latter, but I don't know for sure. Much of what Mucha describes is detailed in this recent report.

»

Or a floating stadium

Maybe Oly2012 should 'vision' this too. If they did I'd retract everything bad I've ever written, said or thought about them. I Promise.
»

I think the water level in the graphs

is normal highest tide with the addition of 1, 2, and 3 feet of sea level rise.  I could be wrong about that.

The more important point is the increase in the incidence and severity of flooding that already occurs when a high tide and heavy rain, snow melt type event occurs.  

This is not a problem that will develop in twenty or fifty years.  It is a problem that already exists that is going to become more severe and frequent.  

I completely agree that the isthmus development is completely silly and I think that the City's own planning on flooding should be brought to the attention of all City officials including council persons who have input on development in the area that is going to flood more often and with greater severity.   

»

built on piers

what downtown Oly needs is a building requirement for stuff that gets built in the flood zone(s) to be elevated up one story...

...implement a standard that encourages builders to design the ground level to be open, and support the structure on piers.

I have seen this style demonstrated in Dwell and elsewhere, and I just keep thinking that Oly could learn a lesson and plan for change instead of permitting designs that will fail during flooding (not if, when).

 

»

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